WFH, AI, and Labor Markets: Three Predictions

This essay offers three predictions for U.S. labor markets: (1) Work from home (WFH) is here to stay. Over the next five years, I anticipate a modest rise in the WFH rate. (2) AI will not drive large-scale job losses over the next ten years. (3) To the extent that AI displaces some jobs (while creating others), it will bring less economic hardship and dislocation than suggested by U.S. experience with the loss of manufacturing jobs.