The increase in aggregate student debt and the struggles of today’s borrowers can be traced to changes in federal policies intended to broaden access to educational opportunities, which increased enrollment and borrowing in higher-risk circumstances.

The typical marginally admitted university student completes an additional year of four-year education, is 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree, and eventually earns 5-10 percent more than their marginally rejected but otherwise identical counterpart. Cost-benefit calculations show positive internal rates of return for students, society, and the government (which supplies financial aid).

Detailed measures of early academic achievement and socioeconomic status are powerful predictors of future criminal justice involvement; however, while reforms that improve school quality and neighborhood environments are likely to reduce future racial disparities in criminal justice involvement, such improvements alone are not likely to eliminate these disparities.