The Evolution of Black-White Differences in Occupational Mobility Across Post-Civil War America

This paper studies long-run differences in intergenerational occupational mobility between Black and White Americans. Combining data from linked historical censuses and contemporary large-scale surveys, we provide a comprehensive set of mobility measures based on Markov chains that trace the short-and long-run dynamics of occupational differences. Our findings highlight the unique importance of changes in mobility experienced by the 1940–1950 birth cohort in shaping the current occupational distribution and reducing the racial occupational gap. We further explore the properties of continuing occupational inequalities and argue that these disparities are better understood by a lack of exchange mobility rather than structural mobility. Thus, contemporary occupational disparities cannot be expected to disappear based on the occupational dynamics seen historically.